PRACTICAL FINANCE TOOL · FP&A · FORECASTING
Forecast Accuracy & Error Evaluator
Evaluate forecast vs. actual performance, compute bounded accuracy scores and absolute percentage errors, and identify directional deviation without statistical ambiguity.
INTERACTIVE WORKSPACE
Run the utility
PARAM!A01
Model Inputs
Enter verified or historical financial figures. Calculations run locally in your browser with zero network transmission.
Local compute · No tracking · Inputs reset on navigation
RESULT!D01
Evaluation Summary
=EVALUATE(PARAM!A02:A03)
Enter an Actual and Forecast amount on the left, then click Calculate Result → to evaluate model performance.
Calculation Logic & Mathematical Specifications
| Metric | Mathematical Formula | Tool Convention / Behavior |
|---|---|---|
| Signed Error / Variance | Actual − Forecast | Positive indicates actual exceeded forecast (under-forecast); negative indicates actual was below forecast (over-forecast). |
| Absolute Error | |Actual − Forecast| | Quantifies scalar distance between outcome and model target regardless of sign. |
| Absolute Percentage Error (APE) | |Actual − Forecast| ÷ |Actual| | Standard unbounded error percentage. When Actual = 0, APE is mathematically undefined (N/A). |
| Accuracy Score | max(0, (1 − APE) × 100) | Bounded 0–100% score convention. For Actual = 0 and Forecast = 0, returns 100.0% by exact-match convention. |
| Precision Safety Limit | |x| ≤ 1,000,000,000,000,000 | Enforces practical precision boundaries (1e15) to prevent rounding anomalies. |
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